Failure to meet rising demand has unknown consequences
NHS managers and the public have the sense that given existing financial constraints, rising demand for health and social care may not be met in the future; this risk of uncertainty around how care will be provided for may translate into uncertainty around the future of the nursing workforce.
If the NHS is unable to meet rising demand, there could be a range of uncertain and unknowable consequences for the way care is funded. This will, in turn, have uncertain impacts on the nursing workforce.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the population will rise to 73.2 million people in 2035 as opposed to 62.3 million in 2010, a rise of 17.5 per cent over 25 years, or an average of 0.7 per cent per annum. In particular, the population aged over 65 is expected to increase from 10.3 million to 16.9 million, an increase of 64.4 per cent, or 2.58 per cent per annum. The expectation is that demand for services will increase.
Moreover, as a recent poll in August 2012 shows, IPSOS-MORI research found that 18 per cent identified the NHS as the fourth most important idea for the public, with only immigration (23 per cent), unemployment (35 per cent) and the economy (61 per cent) as more important. How the NHS provides services and is provided for is of high political salience to the public.
However, a 2012 King’s Fund study on how the NHS is currently performing found 19 out of 45 NHS finance directors expected the quality of care to be cut given current financial constraints (with £20 billion in productivity savings expected by 2014/15). Similarly, a BBC/ComRes poll in September 2012 found that out of 1005 people, 61 per cent expected cuts in services. Among both NHS managers and the public is a sense that given existing financial constraints, rising demand may not be met in the future.
The risk is if a combination of increasing demand cannot be met there will be uncertainty around how care is provided for, which will translate into uncertainty around the future of the nursing workforce and ultimately around what care can be provided. Will the nursing workforce be reshaped or changed in numbers? Will there be changes in services? Decision makers may need to decide how to respond to this uncertainty, especially if the expectation is that demand will increase at the same time as services reflect increased financial constraints.
Sources or references
- Suggested by number of stakeholders in interview and in workshops during CfWI research on nursing.
- From unpublished CfWI report (report available on request).
- Office for National Statistics, UK population projections
- IPSOS/MORI, August 2012 Ideas Index
- Nuffield Trust, 2012, NHS and Social care funding: the outlook to 2021/22
- King’s Fund, 2012, How is the NHS performing? Quarterly monitoring report
Some of the information in this section is provided by stakeholders and expert groups, and does not necessarily represent the views of the CfWI.
