Education intake reductions lead to fewer newly qualified nurses
There are fewer places in pre-registration nursing education, yet applications remain buoyant. Now entering the workforce, Generation Y’s attitudes towards careers are still unclear, while nursing retirement rates could exceed the combined rate of new entrants by about 2030.
The number of places in pre-registration education has declined in recent years. This appears to be result of reduced numbers of places rather than applications, which remain buoyant (Buchan & Seccombe, 2011). There is uncertainty whether this decline in pre-registration places will continue.
There is a large literature on nursing supply factors and trends but few projecting into the future (Buchan and Seccombe 2011, Dunkley L and Haider S 2011, Skills for Health 2011). Buchan and Seccombe project 10 years forward, with scenarios predicting a range from 28 per cent fewer nurses employed by 2022 compared with now, to 10 per cent more nurses.
The main reason for such wide variations is that many future supply and demand factors are uncertain. However, there is some certainty about the current age structure of the nursing workforce. This means retirement rates are more predictable than other supply factors. Buchan and Seccombe note about one in three currently employed nurses is 50 or older. The implication is that over the next 20 years, retirement rates could exceed the combined rate of new entrants to training, plus migrant entrants, plus re-entrants, leading to a supply shortage.
Speculation has also begun about whether young people entering nursing now will have different attitudes towards work, and what effects this might have on future supply. Generation Y (people born between 1980 and 2000) have entered training and work. A recent review found:
Much discussion exists surrounding the integration of the Generation Y into the workplace along with the other three generations of nurses. There is also an abundance of descriptions of the Y Gen characteristics and values. There is, however, limited reference relating to what attracted this generation to nursing or what might retain them in the nursing workforce. (Hutchinson, Brown et al. 2011)
If fewer nurses end up qualifying, this will have implications on what services can be delivered in future: either services will need to be reduced, or, more likely, there will need to be changes in skills mix to accommodate the fall in supply.
Related Sectors Related Specialities
- Healthcare
- Midwives
- Nurses
Related Themes Related Projects
Sources or references
- Suggested by number of stakeholders in interview and in workshops during CfWI research on nursing.
- From unpublished CfWI report (report available on request)
- Buchan, J. and I. Seccombe (2011). A decisive decade: The 2011 UK nursing labour market review, RCN
- Dunkley L. and Haider S. (2011). Workforce Risks and Opportunities – Nursing & Midwifery, CfWI
- Skills for Health (2011). Skilled for the Future: A Strategy for Developing Qualifications Solutions for the Health Sector Hutchinson, D., J. Brown, et al. (2011). Attracting and maintaining the Y Generation in nursing: a literature review. Journal of Nursing Management
Some of the information in this section is provided by stakeholders and expert groups, and does not necessarily represent the views of the CfWI.
