Breakthroughs in treatments of major problems in public health

New medical technologies may be developed that could substantially affect rates and patterns of incidence of public health problems and need for extensive treatment. These technologies could mean, for example, more rapid development of vaccines, new forms of antibiotic and antiviral agents, new ways of boosting immune system and preventing or reducing impact of exposure to common sources of ill-health, and ways of offsetting the impacts of conditions like Alzheimer's.

Though we are aware of growing problems of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and the relative lack of success of substances such as interferon in combating viruses, there are several hopeful directions of research that lead to the possible development of, for example, new types of antibiotic or faster vaccine development. It is possible that we will only see slow, incremental improvement in treatment. But the possibility of more dramatic change cannot be ruled out; indeed, it is more likely than not that some currently untreatable conditions will be brought under more control).

Historically, vaccination programmes and especially antibiotics have had major impacts on public health demand. Even a fraction of such impacts would be significant. Note there may be: (1) rebound effects, as people change their behaviour as expectations of consequences change, thus STDs may become more prevalent as people expect cure; and (2) increased rate of chronic conditions if treatment means more survival of people who would otherwise die but who have still been impacted by the disease, an example being long-term effects of meningitis. Thus public health implications may be ambiguous and not simply positive. The pattern of benefits will very much vary according to the conditions that prove amenable to treatment; a cure for Alzheimer's is very different from one for osteoporosis, for example.

Sources or references

• “Viruses’ tricks for hijacking bacteria could inspire new antibiotics”
• “Beyond antibiotics: A new way to fight superbugs” (New Scientist)
• Section on potential Alzheimer treatments in “Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s”

Some of the information in this section is provided by stakeholders and expert groups, and does not necessarily represent the views of the CfWI.