Breakthrough drugs replace many more invasive services

As some drugs on the market become more successful, this could create a reduced demand for certain clinical interventions, such as amputations. Cardiologists may see fewer referrals as chronic diseases become better managed. Pharmaceutical interventions become more sophisticated and effective.

Research in macro trends in pharmaceutical innovations suggest the industry continues to be committed to innovations. The future also looks bright with the possibility of a large relative increase in new drugs coming to market. Breakthrough drugs will affect the health and social care sector in terms of demand for services and service delivery. One area that might be particularly impacted is invasive services. As pharmaceutical interventions become more sophisticated and effective, conditions that previously required complicated invasive procedures can be managed with easily administered drugs. This may lead to an increase in life expectancy or the average number of years spent in good health. This may have an impact on roles and the workforce’s skills mix. Some roles may be lost as demand for services fall, and the workforce’s overall skill mix must match the changing services on offer. As innovations and new products progress through the development pipeline, service providers, commissioners, education providers etc. all need to be aware of possible implications the product may have if it comes to market, and plan early to best manage the risks and opportunities.

Analysis

This section outlines the projected workforce impacts of the idea.

Impact on sector

• Healthcare

workforce supply

1

2

3

4

workforce demandThe vertical axis represents an increase or decrease in supply or demand from the baseline which is the year 2012.

1

2

3

4

Level of confidence in this analysisThe confidence level is based on the confidence of the stakeholder who added this idea in their information.

Low

Low

Impact on staff

• Management & leadership
• General practitioners

workforce supply

1

2

3

4

workforce demandThe vertical axis represents an increase or decrease in supply or demand from the baseline which is the year 2012.

1

2

3

4

Level of confidence in this analysisThe confidence level is based on the confidence of the stakeholder who added this idea in their information.

Low

Low

Comment

""

"No Demand"

workforce supply

1

2

3

4

workforce demandThe vertical axis represents an increase or decrease in supply or demand from the baseline which is the year 2012.

1

2

3

4

Level of confidence in this analysisThe confidence level is based on the confidence of the stakeholder who added this idea in their information.

Low

Low

Comment

""

"Specifically demand decrease for Cardiologists."

Impact on specialities

• Pharmacists
• Cardiology

workforce supply

workforce demand

Level of confidence in this analysisThe confidence level is based on the confidence of the stakeholder who added this idea in their information.

Low

Low

workforce supply

1

2

3

4

workforce demand

1

2

3

4

Level of confidence in this analysisThe confidence level is based on the confidence of the stakeholder who added this idea in their information.

Moderate

Moderate

Impact on quality of care This is calculated based on the analysis below. An increase receives a score of 1

Overall impact on quality of care: Positively impacts

SAFETY		Potential increase
EFFECTIVENESS		Potential increase
EXPERIENCE		Potential increase

Level of confidence in this analysis: Moderate

Impact on financial outcomesThe scale used to assess the impact on financial outcomes is:
significant cost savings (25%+),
moderate cost savings (5%-25%),
minor costs savings (1%-5%),
minor increase in cost (1%-5%),
moderately increases cost (5%-25%),
significantly increases costs (25%+).

General public and service users		moderate cost savings (5%-25%)
Employers		minor costs savings (1%-5%)
Government (England)		minor costs savings (1%-5%)

Geographical variance of impacts

Decrease imbalances

Level of certainty about impactsThe scale used in this question is:
Very likely (90–100% probability),
Likely (66–90% probability),
About as likely as not (33–66% probability),
Unlikely (10–33% probability),
Very unlikely (0–10% probability).

Likely (66-90% probability)